NCAA Football Gambling
Undefeated Big 12 rivals square off on Thursday night
2010-09-30
Big 12 rivals Texas A&M Aggies and Oklahoma State Cowboys sit in a similar place with 3-0 records coming off a bye week. Sportsbook.com currently has the visiting Aggies as three point underdogs.
Aggies’ QB Jerrod Johnson will look to shake off last week’s poor performance versus Florida International when he threw four interceptions. He threw for 273 yards and three TD in a losing effort (36-31 score) against OSU last year. Sophomore RB Christine Michael leads the Aggies with 331 rushing yards and three TD, but he was helpless against OSU in 2009, rushing for 30 yards on nine carries and catching two passes for minus-4 yards.
Weeden has been incredible this season, completing 74-of-101 passes for 975 yards, 11 TD and only two interceptions. The Cowboys lead the nation with 392 passing YPG, thanks to Justin Blackmon’s nation-best 144 receiving YPG. Senior RB Kendall Hunter has also dominated with 513 total yards (473 rushing) and six touchdowns. Hunter missed last year’s meeting with A&M due to an ankle injury.
Oklahoma State is 4-10 SU against Texas A&M since the formation of the Big 12, but the Cowboys have won two straight, including a 56-28 beat-down in the last meeting in Stillwater in 2008. This betting trend supports the Cowboys to win a third straight game over A&M:
Play Against - Road underdogs (TEXAS A&M) - excellent passing team (>=275 PY/game) against a poor passing defense (230-275 PY/game), in conference games. (35-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.8%, +24 units. Rating = 3*).
For bettors looking to wager on the over-under, this trend expects the game to go Under the hefty 66.5 point total.
Play Under - Any team against the total (OKLAHOMA ST) - after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games where they committed 4 or more turnovers. (39-12 since 1992.) (76.5%, +25.8 units. Rating = 3*).
To wager on tonight’s Big 12 match-up, head over to Sportsbook.com. And while you are there, don’t forget to register for the $100,000 Perfect Parlay promo.
CFL: CFL underdog winners of Week 1 square off (10:00 PM ET, TSN)
2010-07-09
Three of the opening weekend CFL games resulted in underdogs winning outright. Two of them, Saskatchewan and British Columbia square off in an intriguing Week 2 contest Saturday night. Of course, one of the teams has to move to the role of favorite for this game, and the host Lions do so, laying 2-points with a total of 52.5 according to Sportsbook.com. Let’s take a closer look at the game, which happens to be the FREE FoxSheet of the Week.
Saskatchewan comes off a season opening win over defending champ Montreal, a 54-51 double-overtime decision which may wind up going down as the game of the year when the season’s all said and done in November. In that game, Roughriders’ QB Darian Durant threw for 478 yards, leading an offensive outburst that produced 657 yards in all. Not bad for a team that went into the game as a 3.5-point home dog.
British Columbia’s opening win was more about old fashioned football, defense and the ground game, as the Lions knocked off Edmonton, 25-10, on the road. Running back Jamal Robertson led the charge, carrying the ball 11 times for 168 yards with a touchdown. B.C. was also a 3-1/2 point dog in Week 1. Perhaps most important to B.C.’s opening week effort was the solid performance put in by new quarterback Casey Printers, who threw for 218 yards on 20 for 34 passing.
In looking at some of the key bullet points from this report, you’ll find several key bits of info, all seeming to side with the visiting Roughriders.
First, take a look at this system indicating to fade home favorites off an early season divisional win:
• Play Against - Home favorites (BRITISH COLUMBIA) - off a win over a division rival, in the first half of the season. (24-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The StatFox Game Estimator and Power Line both indicate that Saskatchewan should be about a 4-point road favorite here. The simulation calls for a 29-25 win on average. It is a rare but good sign when the two models agree exactly on the expected margin of win.
From a trend perspective, Saskatchewan has been good of the road versus division foes and in early season games:
• SASKATCHEWAN is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1996. The average score was SASKATCHEWAN 22.6, OPPONENT 26.9 - (Rating = 0*)
• SASKATCHEWAN is 39-18 ATS (+19.2 Units) in July games since 1996. The average score was SASKATCHEWAN 27.1, OPPONENT 26.5 - (Rating = 1*)
It sure appears from all intents and purposes that oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com may have this one wrong on the side. As far as the total is concerned, note that Saskatchewan is on a 9-1 under run in road divisional games, and the last five games between these teams in B.C. have gone UNDER the total.
Kickoff is set for 10:00 PM ET on Saturday night on TSN.
International Bowl - NORTHERN ILLINOIS vs. SOUTH FLORIDA (12:00 PM ET, ESPN2)
2010-01-04
The first three editions of the International Bowl in Toronto weren’t all that competitive, as the Big East has swept the proceedings, including the last two by an average margin of 20.0 points per game. South Florida hopes to extend that streak when it takes on Northern Illinois. The Bulls are a 6.5-point favorite at Sportsbook.com, and 87% of bettors are anticipating another rout.
South Florida is not bringing positive momentum into the contest, having gone both 2-5 SU and ATS in their L7 games. Northern Illinois is 7-5 but lost all four of its games versus eventual bowl-qualifying teams. In fact, head coach Jerry Kill owns an 0-6 ATS record versus winning teams while with Northern Illinois. All three prior International Bowl games went OVER the total but South Florida is on a 3-1 UNDER run in bowl games and Northern Illinois has gone UNDER in its L2.
South Florida quarterback B.J. Daniels has had a great year, not only throwing for 1,766 yards, but rushing for 798 yards and 21 total touchdowns. Not bad considering he wasn’t even expected to be on the field with Matt Grothe (torn ACL) entering his senior season. Northern Illinois will have its hands full with Daniels’ versatility, as there are few athletes in the Mid-American Conference that are comparable. On the other side of the ball, Northern Illinois will be unfamiliar with players of defensive end George Selvie’s skill set. Look for the Huskies’ offense to have trouble with the aggressive South Florida defense. The StatFox Game Estimator shows a huge edge on South Florida predicting a 34-19 win, and I look for the same.
Top FoxSheets.com ATS Super Situation
Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (S FLORIDA) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a conference rival, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. (40-14 since 1992.) (74.1%, +24.6 units. Rating = 3*)
Top FoxSheets.com Total Trend
N ILLINOIS is 13-4 UNDER (+8.6 Units) in road games non-conference games since 1992. The average score was N ILLINOIS 16.0, OPPONENT 34.5 - (Rating = 0*)
INTERNATIONAL BOWL Series Trend: There have been three previous International Bowl games in Toronto, matching the Big East and MAC conferences. The BCS conference has won all three games outright and leads the ATS ledger 2/1, all as a favorite of a TD or more. This year’s edition finds South Florida as the Big East rep but laying just 6.5 points. The OVER is also 3-0.
CFB: Music City Bowl - KENTUCKY vs. CLEMSON (8:30 PM ET, ESPN)
2009-12-28
The 2009 Music City Bowl matches the same teams that played in the ‘06 game, Kentucky and Clemson. Like that game, the Tigers are again the heavy favorite, laying 7.5 points. They were upset in ‘06 though, 28-20. The Wildcats will look for an encore performance when the game kicks off at 8:30 PM ET on Sunday night. Visit the Sportsbook.com LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages for more key info before hitting the confirm button on your wagers.
The ’09 version of Clemson lost in the ACC title game and carries the disappointment of yet another season without a BCS bowl berth. The Tigers were 8-5 SU and 7-5 ATS, but just 2-3 vs. fellow bowl teams. They are looking to snap a three-game SU and ATS losing streak in bowl games. Kentucky is 7-5 with two sizeable upset wins to its credit, against. Auburn and Georgia. The Wildcats are in this game for the fourth time in five bowl appearances, and have won three straight bowl games overall.
The underdog Wildcats roll into Nashville to rock with the Tigers. Wildcat fans will be dancing in the streets following a Kentucky outright upset on Dec. 27. Kentucky, winners of three of its last four, should have no problem downing the Tigers, who are 1-6 ATS as bowl favorites. If Clemson’s poor bowl record isn’t enough, the fact that ACC teams are 9-33 as favorites in bowl games should leave bettors with no option other than playing a hot Wildcats team. The Wildcats were 5-0 ATS this year on the road and Statfox’s FoxSheets game simulator predicts a 29-28 Kentucky upset. SEC teams are 27-11 as an underdog in all bowl games. Lastly, the underdog covers at a 64-percent clip in all bowl games that start Christmas day until the New Year.
MUSIC CITY BOWL Series Trend: With Vanderbilt’s 16-14 upset of Boston College in ’08, the SEC pushed its winning streak to 3-games (2-1 ATS) in the Music City Bowl series. This year’s game will be the 12th installment in this Nashville tradition, with underdogs (7-4 ATS) and UNDER the total (also 7-4) being the more profitable past wagers to date. This has been one of the more competitive games annually of late as well, with the last five being decided a one possession margins. Kentucky upset Clemson as an 11-point dog in the ’06 game.
Top FoxSheets.com ATS Trend
KENTUCKY is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) off a home loss since 1992. The average score was KENTUCKY 20.9, OPPONENT 29.4 - (Rating = 1*)
Top FoxSheets.com Total Super Situation
Play Under - Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (KENTUCKY) - after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. (42-13 since 1992.) (76.4%, +27.7 units. Rating = 3*)
This game has seen an unusual amount of action coming in on the OVER side of the total. At last check on the Sportsbook BETTING TRENDS page, 88% of bets were put there.
CFB: Ohio U at Buffalo (7:00 PM ET, ESPN2)
2009-11-12
It’s a weeknight in November, which must mean it’s time for Mid-American Conference Football. The league has enjoyed a bit of resurgence in 2009 with better quality football. Central Michigan knocked off Michigan State and Northern Illinois punted Purdue among fine showings. This week several more MAC games will be televised as teams compete to determine who plays in the league’s championship game.
This is Ohio U’s last road game of the season and it has intentions of staying right where they are in the MAC East standings, hoping to setup all important matchup with Temple in last contest of the year. The Bobcats (6-3, 5-4 ATS) are 4-1 in conference action and trail the Owls who have yet to lose. Before then, the Bobcats have to avoid what almost befell them at Ball State, escaping with 20-17 win as 5.5-point favorites.
Ohio U. has been road warriors with 4-1 (3-2 ATS) record. They hope that continue, since the last several years have been contrary to that information, being 8-13 and 6-15 ATS on the November road. The Bobcats offense is now more of a spread with “pistol” elements and as expected growing pain has been part of the process. They’ve averaged 315 yards against teams that allow 376 per game. Their biggest problems have been in the red zone, with a youthful offensive line and no true power backs.
Defensively, Ohio U has been strong, forcing 27 turnovers and giving the offense continual chances. Off their win at Ball State, they are 11-3 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last three seasons.
Buffalo (3-6, 4-5 ATS) is off painful last minute loss to Bowling Green 30-29 last Tuesday and is running out of reasons to stay motivated.
“It’s a tough loss, tough for our football team,” Buffalo coach Turner Gill said. “That’s why you have to play four quarters. We didn’t know how to finish the football game. Bowling Green did a good job and finished the football game.” After being MAC champions a season ago, the best Buffalo can hope for is .500 record if they win out.
The Bulls have gone thru a number of running backs this season due to injury and Jeffvon Gill, no relation to Buffalo’s coach, rushed for 172 last week against the Falcons in a relief role. The Bulls played mistake free football as week ago, yet is only 8-19 ATS in home games after a contest where they committed one or less turnovers.
Sportsbook.com has Buffalo as 1.5-point favorites with total of 45.The Bulls are 5-4 and 6-3 ATS in last nine meetings and have never been favored in 10 previous games vs. Ohio U until today. Buffalo is just 2-5 ATS as a home favorite and 5-1 OVER against teams with winning records. Ohio U. is 3-11-1 ATS as underdog of three or less points since 1997 and is 7-1 OVER in that role.
ESPN2 has the coverage starting at 7 Eastern live from University of Buffalo Stadium.
StatFox Power Line – Buffalo by 5