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NCAA Football Awards Preview for 2010 Season
2010-08-17
Here are some more of the highly sought after college football awards and a preview of who the top candidates for each award are. Staying ahead of the game in the awards is important for every college football bettor.
Mackey Award (Top Tight End)- Heading into the season, there are many candidates capable of having breakout years and winning the award, including DJ Williams, Ben Guidugli, and Wesley Saunders. However, my two frontrunners are Kyle Rudolph and George Bryan, who both had very impressive seasons as sophomores last year. Rudolph was part of the high-octane offense at Notre Dame that included Golden Tate, Jimmy Clausen and, Michael Floyd. Although his 33 catches, 364 yards, and three touchdowns look rather pedestrian, he was usually the third offensive option. He has a tremendous combination of size and speed and with Tate now gone, he has the potential to vastly increase his numbers. Bryan has excellent size at 6’6” and 270 pounds and posted numbers superior to those of Rudolph. He has a nose for the end zone, scoring six touchdowns to go along with 40 receptions and 422 yards.
Thorpe Award (Best Defensive Back)- There will be a litany of playmaking defensive backs in college football this year, led by UCLA safety Rahim Moore, a reigning first team All-American whose ten interceptions led all of college football last season. DeAndre McDaniel of Clemson also has an amazing nose for the ball, as is evidenced by his eight interceptions last season. The list goes on and includes Mark Barron’s seven interceptions and Tyler Sash and his six picks. The one guy who should contend for this award but doesn’t have the interception totals of the others is Patrick Peterson. At 6’1” and 211 pounds with excellent ball skills and speed, Peterson is the epitome of a shutdown cornerback. His relatively low total of interceptions isn’t the mark of poor playmaking ability but rather an unwillingness of other teams to throw in his direction. Except for Sash, all the others play safety and have more opportunity to make their interceptions. This will be an intriguing race and the result should reflect just how much of a premium the voters place on interception totals.
Doak Walker Award (Running Back)- As the returning Heisman Trophy winner, one might expect Mark Ingram to run away with this award. However, that won’t be even remotely close to the case. It could be argued that he’s not even the overall favorite to win. Ingram’s backup, Trent Richardson, is an outstanding player who will garner more carries and perhaps cut into Ingram’s touches a little bit. Although 1,658 yards and 17 touchdowns on 271 carries is excellent by any standards, Ingram largely won the Heisman as a result of being the best player on the best team in college football. Nevertheless, Ingram is a unique talent and will undoubtedly be in the running. The list of challengers is lengthy and includes Jacquizz Rodgers, LaMichael James, Evan Royster, Ryan Williams, Dion Lewis, and Noel Devine; I think the two headliners from that cluster are Rodgers and Lewis. Although Rodgers is small, he is tough and very skilled in the red zone, scoring 21 touchdowns on the ground last season with 1,440 rushing yards. Perhaps what sets him apart is his versatility and skills as a receiver. He caught an astounding 78 passes last season, a number that would lead almost any team in college football. If Jacquizz and his brother James were able to win their respective position awards in the same year, it would be the first time that two brothers accomplished that feat. Dion Lewis is a formidable roadblock for the Rodgers’ chances, though. He absolutely dazzled as a true freshman last year, rushing for 1799 yards and 17 touchdowns. He only got better as the season went on and there’s no telling how good he could be as a sophomore. The wild-card candidate may be Noel Devine, regarded by many as the most explosive and perhaps fastest of any player in college football. He is a threat to break a long run any time he touches the ball and has a definite “wow” factor. He rushed for 1,465 yards and 13 touchdowns last season, and averaged 6.1 yards a carry, the same as Ingram. If he has a few more highlight-reel runs this year, he may stamp himself as a contender in the eyes of voters.
Mark Ingram is the early favorite for the Heisman Trophy this coming season at www.sportsbook.com with a +350 line. Bet on the next Heisman and more Sportsbook.com where everybody bets.
CFL: Surprising Argos 10-point dogs at Montreal
2010-07-29
The Toronto Argonauts visit the Montreal Alouettes on Thursday as one of the most surprising stories of the young CFL season. At stake is a chance to claim sole possession of first place in the East Division. That might be the only reason to suspect a competitive game. Otherwise, most strength ratings, trends, and even the oddsmakers’ expect this to be a cakewalk for Montreal. Sportsbook.com lists the Alouettes as 10-point favorites. Can the Argos continue their unexpected surge or are the defending champs ready to put them in their place?
It was just last season when Toronto seemed destined for a lengthy rebuilding process, and an over-matched coaching staff lost the trust of its players and the control of a season. But the Argos have won three of their first four games in 2010 -- matching its total under the short-lived reign of coach Bart Andrus last year.
The Argos have won each of their last three games with a combination of stout defense and stellar special teams play -- the same kind of formula that delivered the franchise its last Grey Cup win, six years ago.
"We have a chance." offensive lineman Taylor Robertson said. "We believe. That's the difference."
Toronto rallied from a double-digit deficit to beat the B.C. Lions last week at Rogers Centre, nine days after squeaking out a 27-24 comeback win against the Calgary Stampeders. The Argos opened their run with a two-point win over the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.
Rookie running back Cory Boyd has established himself as the CFL's leading rusher, Chad Owens has been one of the league's most dynamic return men and only Calgary's defence has forced more turnovers. Boyd will be aiming to become the first Argos running back since Bill Symons in 1968 with four consecutive 100-yard games.
Those successes have helped to mask the struggles of first-year quarterback Cleo Lemon, whose offense ranks dead last in passing yards. Toronto is the only team in the league that has not thrown for at least 1,000 yards yet this season -- managing only 791.
In 2009, no team scored fewer points than the Argos, who were held below 20 points per game, on average. Toronto ranked last in rushing yards and second-last in passing yards. The team finished the season with a 3-15 record, missing the playoffs for the second straight year.
Andrus was fired in December, and the team officially announced it had hired Jim Barker two months later. The long-time CFL executive -- and former Argos head coach -- spent the rest of the winter rebuilding the team.
Toronto's new crew will certainly have a major test against the Alouettes. The defending Grey Cup champions have not lost a game at home since Oct. 29, 2008 and it was almost a year before that, Oct. 20, 2007, when Toronto last beat Montreal.
Since Toronto squeaked out that 16-9 win to salvage one game in the season series, the Argos have lost six straight games to the Alouettes by an average of a little more than 20 points.
According to oddsmakers and this week’s StatFox FoxSheet, bettors should expect much of the same on Thursday night. The StatFox Power Line shows that Montreal should be favored by about 21 points, rather than 10.
The Alouettes come in at 3-1, but unlike Toronto, who is being outscored by 1.3 PPG, are beating their opponents by an average of 8.5 PPG. That leads to a very significant trend going against the Argos:
• TORONTO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus good teams - outscoring opponents by 5+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TORONTO 16.7, OPPONENT 34.3 - (Rating = 1*)
Montreal has also been at its best against divisional foes during its recent run of success:
• MONTREAL is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MONTREAL 35.8, OPPONENT 18.9 - (Rating = 1*)
Most handicapping data seems to suggest a blowout, but momentum, confidence, and perhaps a bit of luck could be on the side of Toronto. We’ll see what wins out when the teams kickoff at 7:30 PM ET on Thursday night in Montreal.
CFL Week 4 Betting Action
2010-07-23
The CFL schedule rolls on with another three games from Week 4 on Friday and Saturday. The resurgent Argonauts host British Columbia, Edmonton and Winnipeg will get together with each team trying to end losing skids, and Saskatchewan, the league’s lone remaining unbeaten team, will be in Calgary for a tough contest versus the 2-1 Stampeders. Let’s take a look at the games, and the current prices according to Sportsbook.com.
British Columbia (-2, 47) at Toronto, Friday, 5:30 p.m., TSN
Seems strange to think about now, but just a few short weeks ago, oddsmakers had Toronto (2-1) as 13.5-point underdogs in the season opener at Calgary. The Argos’ lines have dropped in each successive week since, as they’ve managed to put together upset wins over Winnipeg and Calgary. The latter was a home game and they’ll be back in Toronto for a second straight week with this game against B.C. (1-2)
The Argos still aren't getting a whole lot of respect from the oddsmakers though. They're at home and riding a two-game winning streak, while the Lions have lost two in a row. Yet, it is the Lions that are the favored team.
With the total set at 47, it could be a low-scoring game as neither team has been able to move the ball, the Argos are last with 287 yards of offense per game and Lions aren't much better with just 330. In addition, the B.C. defense ranks at or near the top of the league in scoring allowed (21.0) and yards per play allowed (6.7).
Most of the trend angles seem to favor B.C. here, as the Lions have been very good against opportunistic teams and bouncing back from losses…
• BRITISH COLUMBIA is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) against teams with a turnover margin of +0.75 per game or better since 1996. The average score was BRITISH COLUMBIA 29.7, OPPONENT 26.6 - (Rating = 1*)
• Buono is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses as the coach of BRITISH COLUMBIA. The average score was BRITISH COLUMBIA 33.5, OPPONENT 26.7 - (Rating = 4*)
Toronto has forced nine turnovers in the first three games and if it can continue that pace has a good shot at winning this one as well.
Edmonton at Winnipeg (Pk, 54), Saturday 4:30 p.m., TSN
The biggest story surrounding the Edmonton-Winnipeg game is on the injury front for the Blue Bombers. Steven Jyles will start at quarterback for Winnipeg (1-2), with Buck Pierce out with a knee injury. Jyles didn't look out of place last week against Hamilton, but Pierce's experience will be missed. This will be Jyles’ second career start in five seasons in the CFL.
The Eskimos (0-3) failed to close out their past two games and have yet to score a single fourth-quarter point this year, this coming despite the fact that they are outgaining opponents by 15 YPG.
Arguably, the Eskimos have faced the three toughest teams in the league up till this point, and seem to be ready to break out on Saturday. The ball hasn’t exactly bounced their way this season yet either, as they are minus-5 in turnover ratio after three games.
There is one key thing to watch regarding the line for this game, since it has moved towards Edmonton since opening at Winnipeg favored by two. If it moves any further before kickoff to where the Eskimos are favored, this trend will be in place:
• WINNIPEG is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1996. The average score was WINNIPEG 29.8, OPPONENT 23.7 - (Rating = 2*)
Edmonton is 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS in its L4 games vs. Winnipeg.
Saskatchewan at Calgary (-1, 56.5), Saturday 7:30 p.m., TSN
The Saskatchewan Roughriders are the only undefeated team in the league, yet are road underdogs against a Stampeders’ team that looked awful in Toronto last week.
Still, this game pits the league's best offense (Saskatchewan) against the best defense (Calgary). The Roughriders lead in eight major offensive categories, while the Stampeders are ranked No. 1 in six defensive categories.
Oddsmakers are giving defense the edge, or perhaps home field, installing Calgary as the 1-point favorite.
Saskatchewan quarterback Darian Durant is the league’s MVP to this point and is leading an offense that has been both potent and balanced. The Roughriders are gaining 523 YPG on offense, 200 on the ground, 323 through the air. The 38.3 PPG they are averaging are reflective of that potency. However, the Saskatchewan defense has had a world of trouble stopping teams and is allowing a brutal 8.2 yards per play. That sets up Calgary for a nice opportunity according to this StatFox Power Trend:
• CALGARY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=7.2 yards/play over the last 3 seasons. The average score was CALGARY 33.3, OPPONENT 20.1 - (Rating = 0*)
However, head-to-head history is on the side of the visitors here, as Saskatchewan is 7-2-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in the L10 meetings with Calgary.
The StatFox Power Ratings indicate the wrong team is favored here, showing Saskatchewan should be minus-2.
CFL: Defending champs finally open home slate
2010-07-22
The Montreal Alouettes have spent the first three weeks of the 2010 CFL season on the road, winning twice. Thursday night will be their first chance to commemorate their Grey Cup title of last November with their fans. Strangely, oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com don’t seem to be treating that motivation as an important factor, as Montreal is only a 7-point favorite over a 1-2 Hamilton team that it has beaten in 12 of the last 13 head-to-head meetings.
It truly is an unusual line considering how well the Alouettes play at Percival Molson Stadium, where they were undefeated last season before going on to win the Grey Cup with a nailbiter victory over the Roughriders. The Alouettes wanted their first three games to be on the road to allow time to finish their stadium's expansion from 20,000 to 25,000 seats, with a new deck on the south side and permanent bleachers in the east end zone. They delay was precautionary, as nearly all the work has been done for a month and they were able to play a pre-season game in the refurbished venue.
Perhaps the factor that is keeping Thursday night’s line down is how badly Montreal is being gashed defensively in the early season. Through three games, the Alouettes have allowed 29.7 points per game, second most in the CFL, and 453.3 yards per game, worst in the league. They also are just 1-2 against the spread, with the only cover coming against winless Edmonton. Last week’s defensive effort in the 16-12 win at British Columbia was encouraging though, as the Montreal defense yielded just seven yards rushing and 260 overall.
Hamilton has squared off twice with Winnipeg in the early going, splitting two 20-point plus decisions. Last week at home, the Ti-Cats broke out with a season high 435 yards of offense en route to a 28-7 decision. Hamilton is currently ranked 3rd defensively in both points and yards allowed.
Montreal has had little trouble scoring points on Hamilton in recent head-to-head play. In fact, you have to go back to November ’05 for the last matchup in which the Alouettes failed to reach the 20-point mark. In that 13-game span, they have averaged 33.8 PPG while going 12-1 SU & 6-7 ATS. Ironically, eight of the 13 games have gone under the total despite Montreal’s offensive prowess. That would seem to coincide with this significant StatFox Trend in play for the contest:
• HAMILTON is 21-6 UNDER (+14.4 Units) versus very good offensive teams - scoring 32 or more points/game since 1996. The average score was HAMILTON 19.8, OPPONENT 29.6 - (Rating = 2*)
Kickoff for the Thursday contest is set for 7:30 PM ET. The StatFox Power Line estimates that the pointspread should be Montreal by 11.
Maybe the most puzzling thought when you consider Montreal’s success against Hamilton, its dominance at home, and its improving defense is that the line for this game opened at Montreal -8.5, and has since been bet down to the 7-point mark. We’ll see if bettors are on to something or if the Alouettes were just waiting to get back home.
CFL: CFL Week 3 Betting Breakdown
2010-07-14
The first two weeks of the 2010 Canadian Football League season have been dominated by underdogs, as three of the four favorites in each week not only failed to cover the pointspread, but lost outright as well. Another four games are on tap for this weekend. Let’s take a quick look at the lines courtesy of Sportsbook.com, and the key betting info for each contest.
Wednesday, 7/14/2010
(411) CALGARY at (412) TORONTO 7:30 PM
Line: Calgary by 6, Total: 48.5
Toronto was one of the surprise underdog winners of Week 2, upsetting Winnipeg 36-34, despite being outgained by a whopping 513-321 margin. In two games, the Argonauts have already allowed 1,013 yards of offense to their opponents. Fortunately, for this early week Wednesday contest, they’ll have the benefit of playing in front of the home folks for the first time this season. They’ll also have an extra day of rest over Calgary, with the Stampeders having played just this past Saturday.
Speaking of surprises, Calgary has to be considered a mild one at this point, one of two 2-0 teams in the CFL and leading the league in points allowed at 19.0 PPG. The Stampeders’ most recent win was a 23-22 decision at Hamilton, as they pulled the upset as 2-1/2 point dogs.
This will be the second meeting in three weeks between Calgary and Toronto, with Calgary having won the season opener at home 30-16. Here the Stampeders will be looking for a 7th straight win over the Argonauts (5-1 ATS). Toronto has had all kinds of trouble penetrating Calgary’s defense, averaging just 12.5 PPG during the skid.
Friday, 7/16/2010
(413) WINNIPEG at (414) HAMILTON 7:00 PM
Line: Hamilton by 3.5, Total: 54
Winnipeg is averaging a scintillating 41.5 PPG and 507.5 YPG on offense in its first two contests but unfortunately has just one win to show for it. New quarterback Buck Pierce has been everything head coach Paul LaPolice could ask for in his first two games with the team. Still, the Blue Bombers are stinging from the late loss to Toronto last week, a game in which they were favored by 10-1/2 points. In this divisional tilt, that upset loss leads to a powerful FoxSheets system for Friday’s tilt:
• Play On - Any team (WINNIPEG) - versus division opponents, off an upset loss as a home favorite. (28-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.8%, +19.2 units. Rating = 2*)
Hamilton is one of two teams still in search of a first win and has to be concerned that it gave up 502 yards of offense to Pierce and Winnipeg in the season opener. This sets up a nice revenge spot of the Ti-Cats, perhaps negating the earlier system:
• HAMILTON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) revenging a loss where opponent scored 38 or more points over the last 2 seasons. The average score was HAMILTON 28.2, OPPONENT 23.5 - (Rating = 1*)
Including the 49-29 win two weeks ago at home, Winnipeg is on a 5-2 SU & ATS run in the head-to-head series with Hamilton and the last three games have sailed over the posted total. The StatFox Power Line indicates that Hamilton should be favored by 6 points in this one.
(415) MONTREAL at (416) BRITISH COLUMBIA 10:00 PM
Line: TBD
Montreal and British Columbia hook up for a battle of 1-1 teams Friday night in Vancouver. The Alouettes are expected to be a small favorite when the line gets released. Oddsmakers are awaiting the status of Lions’ QB Casey Printers, who left last Saturday’s loss to Saskatchewan with an injury. He is listed as questionable so there’s a good chance he will be able to go.
This will be the first time these teams have met since Montreal hammered B.C. 56-19 in the West Division Final last November. Still, that rout aside, this has been a very close series over the years. In fact, for as good as Montreal was in 2009, the Lions handed the Alouettes one of their three regular season losses last year and swept both meetings against the pointspread.
B.C.’s rushing attack has been the best in the CFL thus far this season in terms of average gain, 8.3 yards per attempt. At the same time, Montreal is allowing a league worst 7.8 yards per rush. In fact, the Alouettes are the league’s worst defense in several categories, including points allowed, yards passing and yards per pass attempt. That is a scary proposition for a team expected to be playing as a road favorite.
Saturday, 7/17/2010
(417) EDMONTON at (418) SASKATCHEWAN 4:00 PM
Line: Saskatchewan by 7, Total: 56
Saskatchewan is arguably the league’s best team right now, and they’ll play their second home game of the season in NFL Network’s Game of the Week on Saturday afternoon. The Roughriders are 2-0 on the season, having scored 91 points. Quarterback Darian Durant is arguably the league MVP after the first two games, as he leads a balanced offensive attack gaining a phenomenal 9.1 yards per play, including 9.9 per pass. The hot start is nothing new for the Roughriders:
• SASKATCHEWAN is 40-18 ATS (+20.2 Units) in July games since 1996. The average score was SASKATCHEWAN 27.3, OPPONENT 26.3 - (Rating = 2*)
Edmonton is the league’s biggest disappointment to date having lost both of its games by double-digits. The Eskimos are actually outgaining opponents by 45 YPG but have turned the ball over five times while only forcing one turnover defensively.
This game boasts the highest total of the week, 56 points, but even still, most trends seem to be pointing to a shootout, including…
• SASKATCHEWAN is 73-42 OVER (+26.8 Units) in home games since 1996. The average score was SASKATCHEWAN 28.3, OPPONENT 25.6 - (Rating = 1*)
PROFITS DROP AT FOOTBALL POOLS GROUP
2010-04-05
Online casino, bingo and poker division underperforms
The predominently football pools betting group Sportech plc has unveiled a disappointing set of numbers that show the group's nlne casino poker and bingo operations have been underperforming, affecting overall operating profit, which fell by 14 percent to GBP 19.5 million over the year 2009. EBITDA dropped by 12 percent to GBP 14.7 million.
“That the decline in profitability is due primarily to our continued investment in establishing our online football pools business and the underperformance of our e-gaming business is testament to the resilience of the business in these tough times," said chief executive Ian Penrose, giving an assurance that strong action has been taken to address the underperformance.
Operating highlights included Sportech’s acquisition of Scientific Games Racing (SGR), the pari-mutuel technology provider and venue management business division of US giant Scientific Games, and a joint venture in India with Playwin, the Indian lottery and gaming brand owned by Essel Group (see previous InfoPowa reports).
“The strategic acquisition of SGR, together with our entry into the Indian market in partnership with one of India’s leading organisations, offers a unique opportunity to build a profit focused, global gaming business from strong pari-mutuel sporting and technology foundations,” said Penrose.
Sportech secured GBP 90.8 million in revised banking facilities valid to 2013 at the end of 2009, giving the group the flexibility to grow organically and make acquisitions, the chief executive said.
MAJOR NEW FOOTBALL ADVERTISING CAMPAIGN COMING FROM WILL HILL
2010-04-05
New advertising agency shows its paces
UK football fans can expect an avalanche of new William Hill advertisements this weekend as the company launches its latest football campaign - the first created by its new agency The Bank.
The marketing publication Drum reports that the London-based ad agency was tasked at the beginning of March with reinforcing the brand’s association with football ahead of this year’s World Cup in South Africa, with the campaign target the positioning of William Hill as the ‘home of betting’.
The creative idea will run across all media activity at regional level, handled by both The Bank and the in-house marketing department.
The television element was produced by the agency’s in-house production department and directed by creative founder Ian Cassie.
Kristof Fahy, brand and marketing director at William Hill, told The Drum: “We are trusted – with over 75 years of experience and a huge presence both on the high street and online. Simply put we are the home of betting in the UK and as such, we have a unique place in the minds of the British public.
"This next period of activity will coincide with our continued drive to offer customers an unrivalled experience online, on the phone and on the high street. The Bank showed the kind of strategic insight and clarity of creative thinking we are looking for.”
Cassie added: ”Our task has been to take all the great things that the William Hill brand stands for and re-present it in a creative idea that is unique, flexible and persuasive which can work as effectively in a TV spot as on a betting slip.”