NCAA Football Gambling
Boise State Kicker facing threats
2010-12-06
The Boise State Broncos were ranked number three in the BCS rankings on Friday. On Saturday, their untarnished record of 11-0 was crushed as well as their number three ranking as Nevada beat the Broncos 34-31 in over time. To the shock of NCAA Football betting everywhere, as the Broncos were heavily favored.
This was a tough loss, especially for Broncos’ kicker Kyle Brotzman, who missed two field goals in the game. The first being a 26 yard kick to win the game with two seconds left, and the second misfire came on an overtime kick from 24 yards.
Understandably, fans were unhappy with Brotzman’s mistakes, and decided to let him know about it. Within hours of the Broncos’ loss, the Ada County Sheriff Department received a report about a woman thought to be associated with the Brotzman family receiving obnoxious, harassing calls.
Soon the obnoxious calls transformed into Facebook pages filled with name-calling, insults, threats, and taunts. On a positive note, the supportive crowd for Brotzman appeared just as fast as the negative bunch, starting groups with names such as “Bronco Nation Loves Kyle Brotzman” and “We Still Love Kyle Brotzman.” Thousands of fans began to leave supportive messages for Brotzman on these groups, and as of Monday afternoon, 27,600 people had clicked the “Like” button for these groups.
Boise State Head Coach Chris Peterson didn’t blame the Broncos’ loss solely on Brotzman by saying that not just one single person is responsible for the loss and that there’s enough blame to go around for everyone: “Including myself. “There were a lot of other chances to win the game. That was just one of them. That's one that 99 out of 100 times he’s going to make.”
The loss drops Boise State out of any running they once had of playing in a BCS game, or possibly a national championship, and they now have to settle for a non-BCS bowl. The game was a tough break for NCAA Football betting fans, but the season it’s over yet. Are you ready to get into the action? Head over to www.sportsbook.com the home of NCAA Football betting.
Undefeated Big 12 rivals square off on Thursday night
2010-09-30
Big 12 rivals Texas A&M Aggies and Oklahoma State Cowboys sit in a similar place with 3-0 records coming off a bye week. Sportsbook.com currently has the visiting Aggies as three point underdogs.
Aggies’ QB Jerrod Johnson will look to shake off last week’s poor performance versus Florida International when he threw four interceptions. He threw for 273 yards and three TD in a losing effort (36-31 score) against OSU last year. Sophomore RB Christine Michael leads the Aggies with 331 rushing yards and three TD, but he was helpless against OSU in 2009, rushing for 30 yards on nine carries and catching two passes for minus-4 yards.
Weeden has been incredible this season, completing 74-of-101 passes for 975 yards, 11 TD and only two interceptions. The Cowboys lead the nation with 392 passing YPG, thanks to Justin Blackmon’s nation-best 144 receiving YPG. Senior RB Kendall Hunter has also dominated with 513 total yards (473 rushing) and six touchdowns. Hunter missed last year’s meeting with A&M due to an ankle injury.
Oklahoma State is 4-10 SU against Texas A&M since the formation of the Big 12, but the Cowboys have won two straight, including a 56-28 beat-down in the last meeting in Stillwater in 2008. This betting trend supports the Cowboys to win a third straight game over A&M:
Play Against - Road underdogs (TEXAS A&M) - excellent passing team (>=275 PY/game) against a poor passing defense (230-275 PY/game), in conference games. (35-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.8%, +24 units. Rating = 3*).
For bettors looking to wager on the over-under, this trend expects the game to go Under the hefty 66.5 point total.
Play Under - Any team against the total (OKLAHOMA ST) - after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games where they committed 4 or more turnovers. (39-12 since 1992.) (76.5%, +25.8 units. Rating = 3*).
To wager on tonight’s Big 12 match-up, head over to Sportsbook.com. And while you are there, don’t forget to register for the $100,000 Perfect Parlay promo.
CFL: CFL underdog winners of Week 1 square off (10:00 PM ET, TSN)
2010-07-09
Three of the opening weekend CFL games resulted in underdogs winning outright. Two of them, Saskatchewan and British Columbia square off in an intriguing Week 2 contest Saturday night. Of course, one of the teams has to move to the role of favorite for this game, and the host Lions do so, laying 2-points with a total of 52.5 according to Sportsbook.com. Let’s take a closer look at the game, which happens to be the FREE FoxSheet of the Week.
Saskatchewan comes off a season opening win over defending champ Montreal, a 54-51 double-overtime decision which may wind up going down as the game of the year when the season’s all said and done in November. In that game, Roughriders’ QB Darian Durant threw for 478 yards, leading an offensive outburst that produced 657 yards in all. Not bad for a team that went into the game as a 3.5-point home dog.
British Columbia’s opening win was more about old fashioned football, defense and the ground game, as the Lions knocked off Edmonton, 25-10, on the road. Running back Jamal Robertson led the charge, carrying the ball 11 times for 168 yards with a touchdown. B.C. was also a 3-1/2 point dog in Week 1. Perhaps most important to B.C.’s opening week effort was the solid performance put in by new quarterback Casey Printers, who threw for 218 yards on 20 for 34 passing.
In looking at some of the key bullet points from this report, you’ll find several key bits of info, all seeming to side with the visiting Roughriders.
First, take a look at this system indicating to fade home favorites off an early season divisional win:
• Play Against - Home favorites (BRITISH COLUMBIA) - off a win over a division rival, in the first half of the season. (24-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The StatFox Game Estimator and Power Line both indicate that Saskatchewan should be about a 4-point road favorite here. The simulation calls for a 29-25 win on average. It is a rare but good sign when the two models agree exactly on the expected margin of win.
From a trend perspective, Saskatchewan has been good of the road versus division foes and in early season games:
• SASKATCHEWAN is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1996. The average score was SASKATCHEWAN 22.6, OPPONENT 26.9 - (Rating = 0*)
• SASKATCHEWAN is 39-18 ATS (+19.2 Units) in July games since 1996. The average score was SASKATCHEWAN 27.1, OPPONENT 26.5 - (Rating = 1*)
It sure appears from all intents and purposes that oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com may have this one wrong on the side. As far as the total is concerned, note that Saskatchewan is on a 9-1 under run in road divisional games, and the last five games between these teams in B.C. have gone UNDER the total.
Kickoff is set for 10:00 PM ET on Saturday night on TSN.
CFB: Nebraska vs. Texas (8:00 PM ET, ABC)
2009-12-04
The Big 12 Championship game has a recent history of blowout wins by the heavay favorite. Will the 2009 game be any different? Texas is again laying big points, 14.5 to be exact, so oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com have weighed in with their opinion. Bettors seem to be following the bait…errr, lead, as over 60% are siding with the Longhorns according to the Betting Trends page.
It wasn’t an easy trek, but Nebraska accomplished one of its goals this season, winning the Big 12 North. The next goal is more challenging aspiration, knocking off Texas for the conference crown. This is the Cornhuskers fifth appearance in the Big 12 championship and the third time they will face Texas. Nebraska (9-3, 7-5 ATS) has to this point stayed with a familiar script, using a conservative offense, a stingy defense and special teams play that consistently wins the field position battle. Only Texas Tech and lucky Colorado has managed to score more than 17 points against the Blackshirts, with Ndamukong Suh, a finalist for the Lombardi Award, leading the assault. The offense needs RB Roy Helu gaining yardage behind the offensive line, giving inaccordant quarterback Zac Lee a chance to complete passes. Nebraska is 25-10 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 62 percent or better.
After missing out on the BCS title game a year ago, Texas (12-0, 5-6-1 ATS) was expected to come in this season and have Texas-sized chip on their shoulder. One aspect overlooked is every year is divergent. Different players are starters along with backups and attitudes change for individuals still in college. The Longhorns had more than their share of slow starts and always came on to put way opponent in the last 30-45 minutes of game action. Since the close 16-13 victory over Oklahoma, the Texas players have played with greater purpose and man-handled everyone on the schedule. It’s evident the Longhorns are peaking but will face a determined Nebraska club that is has nothing to lose. Texas is 22-5 ATS when they allow 4 to 4.5 total yards per play.
The Texas defense was sliced and diced by Texas A&M last week for 532 yards, but Nebraska lacks that kind of firepower to match those figures. Do expect Lee of the Cornhuskers to throw the ball, especially early, since the Longhorns have allowed 279.3 yards passing in last three contests. Nebraska has covered seven of last 10 against teams with winning records.
Against teams from BCS conferences, Nebraska has scored a whopping 18.3 points per game this season. That means a quick start for focused Mack Brown team has TV viewers heading over to ACC contest. This is attitude game for Longhorns, beat Huskers decidedly and folks start believing they can defeat SEC champion. Let Nebraska hang around playing great defense and people will ask what is wrong with TCU not being in Pasadena for last game of the season. The Horns are 13-4 ATS after allowing 325 or more passing yards.
Favorites in the Big 12 title games are 8-4-1 ATS. The StatFox Power Line shows Texas by 15, but, in “Lee Corso Fashion”, StatFox Steve says not so fast: We’ve seen it before, the Big 12 championship game becomes a big joke, as the favorite rolls. Most experts and bettors are expecting similar circumstances this year, since Nebraska is just another in the line of weaker North Division foes and Texas has already been inserted into the national title game vs. the SEC winner. I don’t see it that way though. This year’s game seems different, and it could all be about one player, DT Ndamukong Suh of Nebraska, who has the ability to control the Longhorns offense on his own. The Cornhuskers are giving up just 11 PPG, including 13.1 PPG only in league play. There is a reason the StatFox Game Estimators only project Texas to score in the mid-20’s. If so, it will be tough to cover this 2-TD spread. Three of the last four games between these teams have been decided by a field goal or less. I like the matchup. Texas may win, but beating the number is a different story.